Complexity science · LLM forecasting

Does the story you hand an AI decide its answer?

Four theories of history, four rival ways to forecast the collapse of nations, handed to two language models across 600 forecasts. One method does not analyse. It tilts.

600
forecasts
4
reasoning lenses
7 : 0
flips toward doom
r = .98
rank preserved
Explore the study →
20 invented nations · chance of collapse plain reasoning
tap a lens — the whole field shifts, but never reorders